Copa Colombia
Match Analysis
Union Magdalena
Santa Fe
Union Magdalena
L
D
W
L
L
L
Santa Fe
W
D
D
W
D
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, Santa Fe has been the stronger side in meetings between these two teams, often keeping the matches tight with few goals scored. The model predicts an away win with a 46% probability, reflecting Santa Fe’s clear quality gap and better recent form, despite Union Magdalena’s rest advantage. The market odds also lean toward Santa Fe, though they suggest slightly less confidence than the model's prediction. Additionally, the model sees a 46% chance that neither team will score, aligning with past trends of low-scoring games in their head-to-head history.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe | Union Magdalena | 2 - 0 | August 6, 2026 |
| Santa Fe | Union Magdalena | 2 - 0 | September 14, 2025 |
| Union Magdalena | Santa Fe | 0 - 1 | March 30, 2025 |
| Union Magdalena | Santa Fe | 2 - 2 | August 19, 2023 |
| Santa Fe | Union Magdalena | 0 - 0 | February 26, 2023 |
| Union Magdalena | Santa Fe | 0 - 2 | September 25, 2022 |
Union Magdalena Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | Santa Fe | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jan 11, 26 | Away | Alianza Petrolera | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Nov 14, 25 | Home | Fortaleza FC | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Nov 9, 25 | Away | America de Cali | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Oct 30, 25 | Home | Deportes Tolima | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Oct 26, 25 | Away | Once Caldas | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Santa Fe Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Deportes Tolima | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 8, 26 | Home | Vasco DA Gama | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Fortaleza FC | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Sep 3, 26 | Home | Millonarios | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | Junior | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 27, 26 | Away | River Plate | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.39% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Santa Fe to win
This prediction indicates that Santa Fe has a 46.48% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.11 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.79% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.81% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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