Ural vs Chelyabinsk Saturday 04th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Ural Chelyabinsk

Ural W L L L W L

Chelyabinsk L D L W L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Ural	Chelyabinsk	3 - 0	June 20, 2026
Chelyabinsk	Ural	1 - 2	April 26, 2026
Ural	Chelyabinsk	1 - 0	November 5, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 20, 26	Home	Chelyabinsk	3 - 0	Win
May 23, 26	Away	Makhachkala	2 - 0	Loss
May 20, 26	Home	Makhachkala	0 - 1	Loss
May 16, 26	Away	Chernomorets	2 - 1	Loss
May 11, 26	Home	KAMAZ	2 - 0	Win
May 4, 26	Home	Shinnik Yaroslavl	0 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 20, 26	Away	Ural	3 - 0	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	Shinnik Yaroslavl	2 - 2	Draw
May 8, 26	Away	Rodina Moskva	2 - 0	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	FK Neftekhimik	2 - 0	Win
Apr 26, 26	Home	Ural	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 22, 26	Away	Arsenal Tula	0 - 0	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
142	Ural	7	4	1	2	12	7	+5	13
241	Chelyabinsk	10	3	2	5	9	18	-9	11

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.83% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Ural has a 44.57% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.70 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.62% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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