Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental Sunday 12th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Uruguay Montevideo Oriental

Uruguay Montevideo L W L L L W

Oriental L D D W D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Uruguay Montevideo	Oriental	0 - 4	September 14, 2025
Oriental	Uruguay Montevideo	1 - 1	June 21, 2025
Oriental	Uruguay Montevideo	0 - 2	September 14, 2024
Uruguay Montevideo	Oriental	2 - 1	June 2, 2024
Oriental	Uruguay Montevideo	3 - 2	April 21, 2024
Uruguay Montevideo	Oriental	0 - 1	October 25, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Away	Colón	1 - 0	Loss
Jun 27, 26	Home	Fenix	3 - 2	Win
Jun 21, 26	Away	Rentistas	1 - 0	Loss
Jun 13, 26	Home	Miramar	1 - 3	Loss
Jun 7, 26	Away	Tacuarembo	1 - 0	Loss
May 30, 26	Home	Plaza Colonia	2 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	CA River Plate	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 28, 26	Home	Colón	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 20, 26	Away	Fenix	2 - 2	Draw
Jun 13, 26	Home	Rentistas	3 - 0	Win
Jun 8, 26	Away	Miramar	2 - 2	Draw
Jun 1, 26	Home	Tacuarembo	2 - 0	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Oriental	16	6	6	4	22	18	+4	24
13	Uruguay Montevideo	15	4	4	7	16	19	-3	16

This prediction suggests that there is a 53.04% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Oriental has a 45.23% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.67 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.54% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.74% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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