First League
Match Analysis
Veles
Arsenal Tula
Veles
W
L
W
W
L
W
Arsenal Tula
W
D
D
W
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Both Veles and Arsenal Tula are in moderate recent form and are closely matched in overall quality, making this an evenly contested matchup. Historically, their meetings have tended to end in draws, with goals being scarce. The model predicts an away win for Arsenal Tula with a 38% probability, which is notably less confident than what the market odds suggest. Additionally, the model sees a moderate chance that neither team will score, aligning somewhat with the market view on both teams to score.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula | Veles | 1 - 1 | May 6, 2023 |
| Veles | Arsenal Tula | 1 - 0 | October 16, 2022 |
| Veles | Arsenal Tula | 1 - 1 | October 27, 2021 |
Veles Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 26 | Home | Nizhny Novgorod | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Ska-khabarovsk | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Leningradets | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 3, 26 | Home | Rotor Volgograd | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Enisey | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | Chelyabinsk | 1 - 0 | Win |
Arsenal Tula Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 26 | Home | Rotor Volgograd | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Leningradets | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Torpedo Moskva | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | PFC Sochi | 5 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | FK Neftekhimik | 0 - 1 | Loss |
First League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Veles | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 11 |
Predictions
Arsenal Tula to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Arsenal Tula has a 38.07% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.82 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.95% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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