Serie B
Match Analysis
Verona
Ascoli
Verona
D
W
W
W
W
L
Ascoli
L
W
L
L
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, meetings between Verona and Ascoli have been fairly even, with neither side holding a clear edge. The model predicts a home win with a 59% probability, which is notably higher than what the current market odds suggest. This prediction leans on Verona's strong recent form and the fact they've been creating more shooting chances, despite Ascoli’s recent attacking momentum. The model also sees a slight edge toward 'over' for 1.5 goals and 'under' for 2.5 goals, aligning somewhat more confidently with the over/under market views.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verona | Ascoli | 3 - 1 | August 12, 2023 |
| Verona | Ascoli | 1 - 1 | March 16, 2019 |
| Ascoli | Verona | 1 - 0 | October 30, 2018 |
| Verona | Ascoli | 0 - 0 | March 13, 2017 |
| Ascoli | Verona | 1 - 4 | October 15, 2016 |
Verona Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Virtus Entella | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Lecco | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 22, 26 | Home | Virtus Verona | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | Rovereto | 8 - 1 | Win |
| May 24, 26 | Home | AS Roma | 0 - 2 | Loss |
Ascoli Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Genoa | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Potenza | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Lazio | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Frosinone | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 7, 26 | Home | Union Brescia | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jun 3, 26 | Away | Union Brescia | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Serie B Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ascoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Verona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions
Verona to win
This prediction indicates that Verona has a 58.52% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.17 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.51% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.49% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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