Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha Sunday 16th August 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Vitória de Sernache SC Covilha

Vitória de Sernache D D W D W D

SC Covilha D D L W W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 10, 26	Away	Leça	1 - 1	Draw
May 31, 26	Home	Louletano	1 - 1	Draw
May 23, 26	Away	Atlético Malveira	0 - 3	Win
May 17, 26	Home	Oliveira Hospital	0 - 0	Draw
May 10, 26	Away	Louletano	1 - 2	Win
May 3, 26	Home	Atlético Malveira	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 1, 26	Home	Amora	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Away	Caldas	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 18, 26	Away	Lusitano Évora 1911	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 12, 26	Home	Atlético CP	2 - 1	Win
Mar 21, 26	Away	1º Dezembro	1 - 2	Win
Mar 14, 26	Home	Lusitano Évora 1911	1 - 3	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	SC Covilha	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Vitória de Sernache	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

This prediction suggests that there is a 55.02% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Vitória de Sernache has a 50.43% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.62 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.22% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.45% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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