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Primera División - Apertura logo

Primera División - Apertura

July 12, 2026 VS

Match Analysis

Wanderers Progreso
Wanderers D W D D W L
Progreso L W L L L L
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Progreso Wanderers 2 - 1 April 18, 2026
Progreso Wanderers 2 - 0 September 21, 2025
Wanderers Progreso 1 - 1 March 27, 2025
Progreso Wanderers 0 - 0 November 10, 2024
Wanderers Progreso 4 - 2 July 14, 2024
Wanderers Progreso 2 - 0 May 4, 2024

Wanderers Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 5, 26 Home Danubio 0 - 0 Draw
May 31, 26 Away Juventud 2 - 5 Win
May 24, 26 Home Deportivo Maldonado 1 - 1 Draw
May 17, 26 Away Albion FC 0 - 0 Draw
May 8, 26 Home Liverpool Montevideo 1 - 0 Win
May 2, 26 Away Juventud 2 - 1 Loss

Progreso Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 7, 26 Home Albion FC 1 - 2 Loss
May 30, 26 Away Danubio 1 - 2 Win
May 23, 26 Home Atletico Torque 1 - 2 Loss
May 16, 26 Away Juventud 2 - 0 Loss
May 10, 26 Away Atletico Torque 2 - 1 Loss
May 3, 26 Home Cerro Largo 0 - 1 Loss

Primera División - Apertura Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
8 Wanderers 19 7 5 7 22 24 -2 26
15 Progreso 19 3 4 12 16 30 -14 13

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 57.54% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Wanderers to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Wanderers has a 39.05% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 35.50 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.91% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.41% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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