Championship
Match Analysis
Watford
Burnley
Watford
L
L
W
L
L
D
Burnley
D
L
D
L
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Burnley is seen as a slightly stronger side compared to Watford, which gives them an advantage in this matchup. However, both teams are currently in poor form, and their recent games have been closely matched in terms of shot volume. The model predicts a 40% chance of Burnley winning, which is notably higher than what the market odds suggest, indicating the model is more confident in Burnley's chances than the current betting lines. Additionally, the model expects both teams to score and for the match to have more than 2.5 goals, aligning with the market’s inclination towards a higher-scoring game.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | Burnley | 1 - 2 | April 18, 2025 |
| Burnley | Watford | 2 - 1 | December 21, 2024 |
| Burnley | Watford | 1 - 1 | February 14, 2023 |
| Watford | Burnley | 1 - 0 | August 12, 2022 |
| Watford | Burnley | 1 - 2 | April 30, 2022 |
| Burnley | Watford | 0 - 0 | February 5, 2022 |
Watford Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 26 | Away | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Stoke City | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 8, 26 | Home | Preston | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | West Brom | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 1, 26 | Away | Swansea | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | West Ham | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Burnley Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 26 | Home | Derby | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Swansea | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 8, 26 | Away | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Bristol City | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 2, 26 | Home | Middlesbrough | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | Norwich | 4 - 1 | Loss |
Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.73% likelihood that both Watford and Burnley will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Watford or Burnley to win
This prediction indicates that Burnley has a 39.84% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.36 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.11% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.2% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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