AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1º de Maio Sunday 30th August 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

Aug. 30, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

AD Nogueirense Naval 1º de Maio

AD Nogueirense L W L L L

Naval 1º de Maio L L W L L L

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 18, 25	Away	SC Covilha	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 21, 25	Home	Águias do Moradal	1 - 0	Win
Sep 9, 18	Away	Sanjoanense	2 - 0	Loss
Sep 3, 17	Home	Gafanha	0 - 1	Loss
Sep 4, 16	Away	Mortágua	1 - 0	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 15, 26	Away	Estrela	2 - 0	Loss
Oct 16, 16	Home	Maritimo	0 - 4	Loss
Sep 25, 16	Home	Fafe	3 - 2	Win
Sep 4, 16	Away	Benfica Castelo Branco	8 - 0	Loss
May 14, 11	Home	Guimaraes	0 - 3	Loss
May 8, 11	Away	União de Leiria	1 - 0	Loss

This prediction suggests that there is a 56.89% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that AD Nogueirense has a 51.85% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.81 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.57% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.58% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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