Atletico-MG vs Bahia Wednesday 22nd July 2026 01:30 AM football predictions.

Atletico-MG Bahia

Atletico-MG W W L W W D

Bahia W W L D L D

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Atletico-MG	Bahia	3 - 0	November 5, 2025
Bahia	Atletico-MG	2 - 1	July 13, 2025
Bahia	Atletico-MG	3 - 0	September 15, 2024
Atletico-MG	Bahia	1 - 1	June 2, 2024
Bahia	Atletico-MG	4 - 1	December 7, 2023
Atletico-MG	Bahia	1 - 0	August 13, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 31, 26	Away	Vasco DA Gama	0 - 1	Win
May 27, 26	Home	Puerto Cabello	1 - 0	Win
May 24, 26	Away	Corinthians	1 - 0	Loss
May 21, 26	Home	Cienciano	2 - 0	Win
May 16, 26	Home	Mirassol	3 - 1	Win
May 10, 26	Home	Botafogo	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	Atletico Torque	4 - 1	Win
May 30, 26	Home	Botafogo	2 - 1	Win
May 25, 26	Away	Coritiba	3 - 2	Loss
May 17, 26	Home	Gremio	1 - 1	Draw
May 10, 26	Home	Cruzeiro	1 - 2	Loss
May 3, 26	Away	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Bahia	17	7	5	5	25	23	+2	26
14	Atletico-MG	17	6	3	8	21	23	-2	21

This prediction indicates that Atletico-MG has a 40.03% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.88 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.41% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.19% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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