Atletico-MG vs Gremio Saturday 15th August 2026 10:30 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Atletico-MG Gremio

Atletico-MG W D W W L W

Gremio L D L L W L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Gremio	Atletico-MG	2 - 1	February 26, 2026
Atletico-MG	Gremio	1 - 3	August 17, 2025
Gremio	Atletico-MG	2 - 1	March 29, 2025
Atletico-MG	Gremio	2 - 1	October 9, 2024
Gremio	Atletico-MG	2 - 3	September 1, 2024
Atletico-MG	Gremio	3 - 0	November 26, 2023

Atletico-MG Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 26, 26	Away	Palmeiras	1 - 2	Win
Jul 21, 26	Home	Bahia	1 - 1	Draw
May 31, 26	Away	Vasco DA Gama	0 - 1	Win
May 27, 26	Home	Puerto Cabello	1 - 0	Win
May 24, 26	Away	Corinthians	1 - 0	Loss
May 21, 26	Home	Cienciano	2 - 0	Win

Gremio Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 30, 26	Home	Bolívar	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 26, 26	Home	Fluminense	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 23, 26	Away	Bolívar	3 - 2	Loss
Jul 17, 26	Away	Mirassol	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 12, 26	Home	Cruzeiro	3 - 1	Win
Jul 4, 26	Home	Chapecoense-sc	1 - 2	Loss

Serie A Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	Atletico-MG	20	8	4	8	25	25	0	28
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	-4	22

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.18% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Atletico-MG to win

This prediction indicates that Atletico-MG has a 50.9% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.55 %

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.32% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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