Serie A
Match Analysis
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Atletico-MG
W
D
W
D
W
W
Gremio
W
L
D
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Atletico-MG holds a modest quality edge over Gremio, and they are in strong recent form compared to Gremio's poor form. The model predicts a home win with a 54% probability, which is notably more confident than what the market odds imply. Additionally, the model suggests there is a 54% chance both teams will score and a 51% chance of more than one goal overall, indicating an expectation of an open, goal-filled game despite Gremio's rest advantage.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | Atletico-MG | 2 - 1 | February 26, 2026 |
| Atletico-MG | Gremio | 1 - 3 | August 17, 2025 |
| Gremio | Atletico-MG | 2 - 1 | March 29, 2025 |
| Atletico-MG | Gremio | 2 - 1 | October 9, 2024 |
| Gremio | Atletico-MG | 2 - 3 | September 1, 2024 |
| Atletico-MG | Gremio | 3 - 0 | November 26, 2023 |
Atletico-MG Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 26 | Away | RB Bragantino | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | remo | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Palmeiras | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 21, 26 | Home | Bahia | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 31, 26 | Away | Vasco DA Gama | 0 - 1 | Win |
| May 27, 26 | Home | Puerto Cabello | 1 - 0 | Win |
Gremio Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Sao Paulo | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 30, 26 | Home | Bolívar | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Fluminense | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 23, 26 | Away | Bolívar | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 17, 26 | Away | Mirassol | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Cruzeiro | 3 - 1 | Win |
Serie A Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 29 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 25 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Atletico-MG to win
This prediction indicates that Atletico-MG has a 54.14% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.60 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.95% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.19% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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