BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava Saturday 01st August 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

BFC Daugavpils FS Jelgava

BFC Daugavpils W L D W D D

FS Jelgava L W W W L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
FS Jelgava	BFC Daugavpils	1 - 1	May 31, 2026
BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava	1 - 0	April 16, 2026
FS Jelgava	BFC Daugavpils	0 - 0	October 18, 2025
BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava	2 - 0	July 27, 2025
BFC Daugavpils	FS Jelgava	1 - 0	May 25, 2025
FS Jelgava	BFC Daugavpils	4 - 1	April 10, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	FK Liepaja	3 - 1	Win
Jun 30, 26	Away	Rīgas FS	3 - 1	Loss
Jun 25, 26	Home	Riga	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 20, 26	Home	Grobiņa	1 - 0	Win
Jun 16, 26	Home	Super Nova	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 12, 26	Away	Tukums	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 3, 26	Away	Riga	3 - 0	Loss
Jun 29, 26	Home	Grobiņa	2 - 0	Win
Jun 25, 26	Away	Super Nova	1 - 5	Win
Jun 21, 26	Home	Tukums	4 - 1	Win
Jun 17, 26	Home	Ogre United	0 - 2	Loss
Jun 13, 26	Away	Auda	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	BFC Daugavpils	22	7	6	9	25	29	-4	27
6	FS Jelgava	22	6	7	9	24	38	-14	25

This prediction indicates that BFC Daugavpils has a 45.98% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.10 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.23% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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