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Virsliga

July 18, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Match Analysis

Riga Tukums
Riga W W D W W W
Tukums L L L W D L
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Tukums Riga 1 - 3 May 20, 2026
Riga Tukums 3 - 3 April 9, 2026
Riga Tukums 0 - 0 October 24, 2025
Tukums Riga 0 - 1 August 3, 2025
Riga Tukums 3 - 0 May 31, 2025
Tukums Riga 0 - 3 April 13, 2025

Riga Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jul 3, 26 Home FS Jelgava 3 - 0 Win
Jun 29, 26 Away Auda 0 - 2 Win
Jun 25, 26 Away BFC Daugavpils 0 - 0 Draw
Jun 21, 26 Home FK Liepaja 4 - 0 Win
Jun 17, 26 Home Rīgas FS 2 - 1 Win
Jun 13, 26 Away Ogre United 1 - 4 Win

Tukums Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jul 1, 26 Home Super Nova 1 - 2 Loss
Jun 26, 26 Away Ogre United 3 - 2 Loss
Jun 21, 26 Away FS Jelgava 4 - 1 Loss
Jun 17, 26 Home Auda 2 - 1 Win
Jun 12, 26 Home BFC Daugavpils 1 - 1 Draw
May 30, 26 Away FK Liepaja 3 - 0 Loss

Virsliga Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
2 Riga 21 16 4 1 62 19 +43 52
8 Tukums 21 3 8 10 36 41 -5 17

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 52.3% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Riga to win
This prediction indicates that Riga has a 74.69% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 16.06 %

Most Likely Scorelines

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