Riga vs Tukums Saturday 18th July 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Riga Tukums

Riga W W D W W W

Tukums L L L W D L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tukums	Riga	1 - 3	May 20, 2026
Riga	Tukums	3 - 3	April 9, 2026
Riga	Tukums	0 - 0	October 24, 2025
Tukums	Riga	0 - 1	August 3, 2025
Riga	Tukums	3 - 0	May 31, 2025
Tukums	Riga	0 - 3	April 13, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 3, 26	Home	FS Jelgava	3 - 0	Win
Jun 29, 26	Away	Auda	0 - 2	Win
Jun 25, 26	Away	BFC Daugavpils	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 21, 26	Home	FK Liepaja	4 - 0	Win
Jun 17, 26	Home	Rīgas FS	2 - 1	Win
Jun 13, 26	Away	Ogre United	1 - 4	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 1, 26	Home	Super Nova	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 26, 26	Away	Ogre United	3 - 2	Loss
Jun 21, 26	Away	FS Jelgava	4 - 1	Loss
Jun 17, 26	Home	Auda	2 - 1	Win
Jun 12, 26	Home	BFC Daugavpils	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	FK Liepaja	3 - 0	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Riga	21	16	4	1	62	19	+43	52
8	Tukums	21	3	8	10	36	41	-5	17

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.3% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Riga has a 74.69% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 16.06 %

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