Championship logo

Championship
Burnley logo Burnley
Sept. 19, 2026 2 weeks from now VS
Derby logo Derby

Match Analysis

Burnley Derby
Burnley D L D L D D
Derby W L D L L D
STRENGTH
SHOT CONVERSION
SHOTS ON TARGET
POSSESSION
SAVE RATE
ATTACKING POTENTIAL
DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Burnley Derby 2 - 1 August 26, 2025
Derby Burnley 0 - 0 April 8, 2025
Burnley Derby 0 - 0 December 10, 2024
Burnley Derby 4 - 1 January 25, 2016
Derby Burnley 0 - 0 September 21, 2015
Burnley Derby 2 - 0 March 1, 2014

Burnley Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Sep 2, 26 Home Middlesbrough 1 - 1 Draw
Aug 29, 26 Away Norwich 4 - 1 Loss
Aug 26, 26 Away Bradford 0 - 0 Draw
Aug 23, 26 Away West Brom 3 - 1 Loss
Aug 16, 26 Home West Ham 2 - 2 Draw
Aug 8, 26 Home Notts County 1 - 1 Draw

Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Sep 1, 26 Away Portsmouth 0 - 2 Win
Aug 29, 26 Home Swansea 0 - 3 Loss
Aug 22, 26 Home Cardiff 2 - 2 Draw
Aug 15, 26 Away Charlton 2 - 1 Loss
Aug 8, 26 Home Lincoln 1 - 2 Loss
Aug 4, 26 Away Rotherham 1 - 1 Draw

Championship Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
16 Derby 4 1 1 2 5 7 -2 4
23 Burnley 3 0 1 2 4 9 -5 1

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.18% likelihood that both Burnley and Derby will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.
Burnley to win
This prediction indicates that Burnley has a 40.98% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.23 %
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.75% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.92% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Championship

Burnley vs Bristol City 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › QPR vs Middlesbrough 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Sheffield Utd vs Norwich 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Portsmouth vs Cardiff 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Millwall vs Bolton 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Swansea vs Wrexham 16 hours from now · 10 p.m. › Lincoln vs Southampton 9 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. › Stoke City vs Charlton 9 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. › West Brom vs Watford 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › West Ham vs Derby 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Preston vs Blackburn 9 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. ›