Caldas vs Vitória de Sernache Sunday 13th September 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Liga 3

Sept. 13, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Caldas Vitória de Sernache

Caldas L D L D L D

Vitória de Sernache L D L D D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 23, 26	Home	Louletano	2 - 4	Loss
Aug 16, 26	Home	Lusitano Évora 1911	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 8, 26	Away	CF Os Belenenses	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 1, 26	Home	Academica	2 - 2	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	1º Dezembro	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Home	SC Covilha	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 23, 26	Away	Oliveirense	3 - 2	Loss
Aug 16, 26	Home	SC Covilha	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 8, 26	Away	Mafra	5 - 0	Loss
Jun 10, 26	Away	Leça	1 - 1	Draw
May 31, 26	Home	Louletano	1 - 1	Draw
May 23, 26	Away	Atlético Malveira	0 - 3	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
14	Caldas	2	0	1	1	0	1	-1	1
18	Vitória de Sernache	2	0	1	1	0	5	-5	1

This prediction suggests that there is a 55.44% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Caldas has a 42.62% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.85 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.0% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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