Cerrito vs Fenix Sunday 26th July 2026 09:00 PM football predictions.

Cerrito Fenix

Cerrito W D W L L W

Fenix L W L D D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Fenix	Cerrito	4 - 1	April 12, 2026
Cerrito	Fenix	2 - 2	September 22, 2025
Fenix	Cerrito	3 - 2	June 29, 2025
Cerrito	Fenix	0 - 2	September 15, 2022
Fenix	Cerrito	2 - 0	April 10, 2022
Cerrito	Fenix	2 - 4	October 17, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 12, 26	Home	Miramar	1 - 0	Win
Jul 5, 26	Away	Tacuarembo	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 28, 26	Home	Plaza Colonia	1 - 0	Win
Jun 21, 26	Away	La Luz	2 - 0	Loss
Jun 14, 26	Away	CA River Plate	6 - 4	Loss
Jun 7, 26	Home	Atenas	2 - 1	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 13, 26	Away	Paysandu	1 - 0	Loss
Jul 5, 26	Home	Sportivo Huracan	2 - 0	Win
Jun 27, 26	Away	Uruguay Montevideo	3 - 2	Loss
Jun 20, 26	Home	Oriental	2 - 2	Draw
Jun 13, 26	Away	Colón	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 6, 26	Home	CA River Plate	3 - 1	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Fenix	16	7	6	3	28	18	+10	27
2	Cerrito	16	7	6	3	23	21	+2	27

This prediction indicates that Fenix has a 38.42% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.65 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.29% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.26% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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