Club Nacional vs Progreso Saturday 25th July 2026 01:30 AM football predictions.

Club Nacional Progreso

Club Nacional W L W W D W

Progreso L W L L L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Progreso	Club Nacional	0 - 1	February 21, 2026
Club Nacional	Progreso	3 - 1	August 16, 2025
Club Nacional	Progreso	1 - 0	May 23, 2025
Progreso	Club Nacional	1 - 5	February 16, 2025
Progreso	Club Nacional	0 - 3	September 29, 2024
Club Nacional	Progreso	0 - 0	March 23, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 6, 26	Home	Juventud	2 - 1	Win
May 31, 26	Away	Deportivo Maldonado	3 - 0	Loss
May 27, 26	Home	Coquimbo Unido	1 - 0	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Albion FC	1 - 0	Win
May 20, 26	Home	Universitario	0 - 0	Draw
May 15, 26	Away	Atletico Torque	1 - 2	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 7, 26	Home	Albion FC	1 - 2	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Danubio	1 - 2	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Atletico Torque	1 - 2	Loss
May 16, 26	Away	Juventud	2 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Away	Atletico Torque	2 - 1	Loss
May 3, 26	Home	Cerro Largo	0 - 1	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	Club Nacional	19	10	1	8	31	26	+5	31
15	Progreso	19	3	4	12	16	30	-14	13

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.98% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Club Nacional has a 69.09% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 18.56 %

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