Primera Nacional
Match Analysis
Deportivo Maipu
Quilmes
Deportivo Maipu
W
L
W
L
D
W
Quilmes
W
D
W
D
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The two teams are closely matched in overall quality and have shown moderate recent form, making the match fairly even. The model predicts a home win with a 41% probability, which is slightly more confident than what the market odds suggest. Additionally, the model leans toward both teams not scoring and the match ending with fewer than two goals, aligning with the general sense of an evenly contested game.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes | Deportivo Maipu | 2 - 1 | April 5, 2026 |
| Quilmes | Deportivo Maipu | 2 - 2 | June 21, 2025 |
| Deportivo Maipu | Quilmes | 2 - 0 | February 16, 2025 |
| Quilmes | Deportivo Maipu | 3 - 0 | October 13, 2024 |
| Deportivo Maipu | Quilmes | 1 - 1 | May 26, 2024 |
| Deportivo Maipu | Quilmes | 1 - 0 | August 27, 2023 |
Deportivo Maipu Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Godoy Cruz | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 7, 26 | Away | Midland | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Atlanta | 4 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | San Martin Tucuman | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Atletico DE Rafaela | 1 - 3 | Win |
Quilmes Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | San Telmo | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Almagro | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Gimnasia Jujuy | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Patronato | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Colegiales | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Midland | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Primera Nacional Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Deportivo Maipu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 35 |
| 18 | Quilmes | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 32 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 59.96% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Deportivo Maipu to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Deportivo Maipu has a 41.1% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 36.03 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 64.8% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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