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Championship
Derby logo Derby
Sept. 12, 2026 2 weeks from now VS
Birmingham logo Birmingham

Match Analysis

Derby Birmingham
Derby D L L D L W
Birmingham W L D D W D
STRENGTH
SHOT CONVERSION
SHOTS ON TARGET
POSSESSION
SAVE RATE
ATTACKING POTENTIAL
DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Derby Birmingham 1 - 0 March 21, 2026
Birmingham Derby 1 - 1 December 26, 2025
Derby Birmingham 2 - 2 January 30, 2022
Birmingham Derby 2 - 0 September 10, 2021
Derby Birmingham 1 - 2 April 24, 2021
Birmingham Derby 0 - 4 December 29, 2020

Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 22, 26 Home Cardiff 2 - 2 Draw
Aug 15, 26 Away Charlton 2 - 1 Loss
Aug 8, 26 Home Lincoln 1 - 2 Loss
Aug 4, 26 Away Rotherham 1 - 1 Draw
Aug 1, 26 Away Burton Albion 1 - 0 Loss
Jul 31, 26 Away Mansfield Town 1 - 3 Win

Birmingham Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 28, 26 Away Wrexham 1 - 2 Win
Aug 25, 26 Home Brentford 1 - 6 Loss
Aug 22, 26 Home Bristol City 2 - 2 Draw
Aug 15, 26 Away Sheffield Utd 0 - 0 Draw
Aug 8, 26 Away Swansea 0 - 1 Win
Jul 31, 26 Home Barcelona 2 - 2 Draw

Championship Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
14 Birmingham 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 2
17 Derby 2 0 1 1 3 4 -1 1

Predictions

Birmingham to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Birmingham has a 39.21% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.99 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.79% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.27% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Championship

Watford vs West Ham 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Charlton vs Preston 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Derby vs Swansea 8 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. › Blackburn vs QPR 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Middlesbrough vs West Brom 8 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. › Bolton vs Lincoln 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Wolves vs Stoke City 8 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. › Norwich vs Burnley 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Bristol City vs Portsmouth 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Southampton vs Millwall 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd 11 hours from now · 5 p.m. ›