Premier League
Match Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Kaisar
FK Tobol Kostanay
W
L
L
L
D
W
Kaisar
L
D
D
L
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model sees a clear quality gap favoring FK Tobol Kostanay, which would normally suggest an advantage for the home side. However, this is tempered by Tobol's poor recent form and Kaisar's moderate form, along with Kaisar's dominance in recent meetings and their rest advantage. Despite these factors, the model predicts a home win with a 49% probability, which is slightly more confident than the market odds imply. The model also leans toward an Under 1.5 goals outcome, though this view is notably more pessimistic than what the market odds suggest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaisar | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2 - 1 | May 17, 2026 |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | Kaisar | 1 - 0 | September 28, 2025 |
| Kaisar | FK Tobol Kostanay | 1 - 1 | June 15, 2025 |
| Kaisar | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2 - 0 | November 10, 2024 |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | Kaisar | 1 - 2 | June 1, 2024 |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | Kaisar | 0 - 2 | August 6, 2023 |
FK Tobol Kostanay Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Irtysh | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 13, 26 | Home | FK Partizan | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | FK Partizan | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Ordabasy | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 30, 26 | Home | Panevėžys | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Atyrau | 1 - 0 | Win |
Kaisar Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Aktobe | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Yelimay Semey | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Kaspiy | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Ulytau | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 5, 26 | Home | Irtysh | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 28, 26 | Away | Irtysh | 1 - 2 | Win |
Premier League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 22 |
| 12 | Kaisar | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 20 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.47% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.FK Tobol Kostanay to win
This prediction indicates that FK Tobol Kostanay has a 47.59% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.30 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.78% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.16% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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