Gagra vs Saburtalo Sunday 30th August 2026 06:00 PM football predictions.

Erovnuli Liga

Aug. 30, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Gagra Saburtalo

Gagra D W D D D W

Saburtalo L D D D L D

STRENGTH

POSSESSION

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Saburtalo	Gagra	1 - 0	May 20, 2026
Gagra	Saburtalo	1 - 2	April 3, 2026
Saburtalo	Gagra	2 - 1	December 6, 2025
Gagra	Saburtalo	1 - 3	October 3, 2025
Saburtalo	Gagra	3 - 1	May 29, 2025
Gagra	Saburtalo	0 - 1	April 19, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 8, 26	Away	Dinamo Batumi	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 15, 26	Home	BKMA	3 - 1	Win
Jul 11, 26	Home	FC Urartu	2 - 2	Draw
Jun 24, 26	Home	Samgurali	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 18, 26	Away	Meshakhte	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 14, 26	Home	Dinamo Tbilisi	2 - 1	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 15, 26	Away	Torpedo Kutaisi	4 - 3	Loss
Aug 11, 26	Home	Larne	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 4, 26	Away	Larne	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 29, 26	Away	Slovan Bratislava	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 21, 26	Home	Slovan Bratislava	0 - 2	Loss
Jul 14, 26	Home	Flora Tallinn	2 - 2	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Saburtalo	19	10	4	5	27	18	+9	34
8	Gagra	20	5	8	7	20	26	-6	23

This prediction indicates that Saburtalo has a 42.38% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.99 %

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