Hamilton Academical vs Kilmarnock II Saturday 26th September 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Challenge Cup

Sept. 26, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Hamilton Academical Kilmarnock II

Hamilton Academical W W W L D W

Kilmarnock II W D L L L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 8, 26	Away	Spartans	0 - 4	Win
Sep 5, 26	Away	East Kilbride	0 - 1	Win
Aug 29, 26	Home	Cove Rangers	1 - 0	Win
Aug 25, 26	Home	Edinburgh City	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 22, 26	Away	East Fife	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 15, 26	Home	Airdrie United	4 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 8, 26	Away	Cowdenbeath	1 - 2	Win
Aug 25, 26	Away	Cumbernauld Colts	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 11, 26	Away	East Kilbride	5 - 3	Loss
Nov 11, 25	Away	Annan Athletic	6 - 0	Loss
Oct 10, 25	Away	Clyde	2 - 1	Loss
Sep 23, 25	Away	Alloa Athletic	3 - 0	Loss

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.62% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Hamilton Academical has a 60.73% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.95 %

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