HNK Rijeka vs Derry City Thursday 23rd July 2026 08:00 PM football predictions.

HNK Rijeka Derry City

HNK Rijeka W W W W D W

Derry City L L L W D L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 3, 26	Away	Radomlje	0 - 2	Win
Jun 30, 26	Away	Brinje-Grosuplje	0 - 3	Win
Jun 27, 26	Away	Bravo	1 - 2	Win
May 23, 26	Home	HNK Gorica	2 - 0	Win
May 17, 26	Away	Istra 1961	0 - 0	Draw
May 8, 26	Home	Vukovar	3 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 16, 26	Home	CSKA Sofia	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 9, 26	Away	CSKA Sofia	3 - 2	Loss
Jul 3, 26	Home	Waterford	2 - 4	Loss
Jun 26, 26	Home	Drogheda United	2 - 0	Win
Jun 22, 26	Away	Shamrock Rovers	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 19, 26	Away	Galway United	2 - 1	Loss

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.5% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that HNK Rijeka has a 55.43% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.65 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.39% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.07% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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