CONMEBOL Libertadores
Match Analysis
Independiente del Valle
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
W
W
W
W
W
W
Deportes Tolima
D
L
W
L
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts Independiente del Valle will win with a 66% probability, reflecting their clear quality gap and stronger recent form compared to Deportes Tolima. The market odds also favor Independiente del Valle, showing similar confidence in a home victory. Additionally, while the model sees a moderate chance of both teams scoring (46% yes), it expects goals to be scarce overall, favoring "under" for matches totalling more than 2.5 goals at a 51% probability, aligning with past meetings where goals have been hard to come by.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | Independiente del Valle | 0 - 1 | August 19, 2026 |
| Deportes Tolima | Independiente del Valle | 1 - 0 | May 5, 2022 |
| Independiente del Valle | Deportes Tolima | 2 - 2 | April 14, 2022 |
Independiente del Valle Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Leones del Norte | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 19, 26 | Away | Deportes Tolima | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Delfin SC | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | LDU de Quito | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Deportivo Cuenca | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Orense SC | 2 - 3 | Win |
Deportes Tolima Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Bucaramanga | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 19, 26 | Home | Independiente del Valle | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | La Equidad | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 4, 26 | Home | Independiente Medellin | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Alianza Petrolera | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 28, 26 | Away | Quindio | 2 - 1 | Loss |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.79% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Independiente del Valle to win
This prediction indicates that Independiente del Valle has a 65.61% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 18.98 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.25% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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