Liga Pro
Match Analysis
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
W
W
W
L
W
D
Universidad Catolica
W
D
W
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts an away win for Universidad Catolica with a 52% probability. The model sees Universidad Catolica as the stronger side due to a clear quality gap in their favor, despite both teams showing strong recent form and past meetings often ending in draws. The market odds also favor Universidad Catolica, though the model appears slightly more confident in their win than what the odds imply. Additionally, the model suggests there's a 53% chance both teams will score and a 51% chance the match will have more than 1.5 goals, indicating an expectation of a competitive and open game.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica | Libertad | 2 - 0 | April 18, 2026 |
| Universidad Catolica | Libertad | 1 - 1 | November 21, 2025 |
| Libertad | Universidad Catolica | 1 - 1 | October 19, 2025 |
| Universidad Catolica | Libertad | 1 - 1 | August 16, 2025 |
| Libertad | Universidad Catolica | 3 - 1 | April 29, 2025 |
| Universidad Catolica | Libertad | 1 - 2 | August 10, 2024 |
Libertad Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Orense SC | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 27, 26 | Away | Mushuc Runa SC | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 21, 26 | Home | Delfin SC | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Barcelona SC | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 15, 26 | Home | Tecnico Universitario | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | LDU de Quito | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Universidad Catolica Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Tecnico Universitario | 5 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 27, 26 | Away | Guayaquil City FC | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 22, 26 | Home | Barcelona SC | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Deportivo Cuenca | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 15, 26 | Home | LDU de Quito | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Leones del Norte | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Liga Pro Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 39 |
| 9 | Libertad | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 30 |
Predictions
Universidad Catolica to win
This prediction indicates that Universidad Catolica has a 52.46% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.51 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.3% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.92% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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