Miami FC vs Indy Eleven Thursday 16th July 2026 02:00 AM football predictions.

Miami FC Indy Eleven

Miami FC L D L W L D

Indy Eleven L W W W L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Indy Eleven	Miami FC	3 - 2	August 23, 2025
Miami FC	Indy Eleven	1 - 3	March 15, 2025
Indy Eleven	Miami FC	4 - 0	September 28, 2024
Miami FC	Indy Eleven	1 - 3	May 12, 2024
Indy Eleven	Miami FC	1 - 0	September 2, 2023
Miami FC	Indy Eleven	0 - 1	August 12, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 24, 26	Home	Orange County SC	2 - 4	Loss
Jun 14, 26	Away	Oakland Roots	0 - 0	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2 - 0	Loss
May 23, 26	Home	Louisville City	4 - 3	Win
May 21, 26	Away	Detroit City	2 - 1	Loss
May 8, 26	Away	Birmingham Legion	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 13, 26	Away	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1 - 0	Loss
May 30, 26	Home	Rhode Island	1 - 0	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Lexington	3 - 1	Win
May 9, 26	Home	Sporting JAX	2 - 1	Win
May 2, 26	Away	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Away	Birmingham Legion	2 - 2	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Indy Eleven	11	5	3	3	16	12	+4	18
14	Miami FC	14	4	5	5	17	23	-6	17

This prediction indicates that Indy Eleven has a 41.34% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.63 %

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