Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Sunday 26th July 2026 02:00 AM football predictions.

Miami FC Tampa Bay Rowdies

Miami FC D L D L W L

Tampa Bay Rowdies L W L D W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Miami FC	2 - 1	June 14, 2025
Miami FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 2	March 22, 2025
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Miami FC	2 - 0	August 24, 2024
Miami FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2 - 5	April 11, 2024
Miami FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	0 - 2	August 26, 2023
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Miami FC	2 - 0	April 8, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Home	Birmingham Legion	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 24, 26	Home	Orange County SC	2 - 4	Loss
Jun 14, 26	Away	Oakland Roots	0 - 0	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2 - 0	Loss
May 23, 26	Home	Louisville City	4 - 3	Win
May 21, 26	Away	Detroit City	2 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	Lexington	1 - 4	Loss
Jun 20, 26	Away	Brooklyn	0 - 2	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	Hartford Athletic	0 - 1	Loss
Jun 10, 26	Home	Charleston Battery	2 - 2	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	Louisville City	0 - 2	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Phoenix Rising	3 - 0	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	15	9	4	2	24	12	+12	31
16	Miami FC	15	4	6	5	18	24	-6	18

This prediction indicates that Tampa Bay Rowdies has a 56.89% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 22.42 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.63% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.27% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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