USL Championship
Match Analysis
Monterey Bay
Lexington
Monterey Bay
D
D
L
D
L
L
Lexington
L
L
L
W
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | Monterey Bay | 3 - 2 | August 1, 2026 |
| Lexington | Monterey Bay | 3 - 1 | May 8, 2026 |
| Monterey Bay | Lexington | 2 - 1 | June 8, 2025 |
| Lexington | Monterey Bay | 0 - 0 | April 19, 2025 |
Monterey Bay Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Rhode Island | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | New Mexico United | 2 - 5 | Loss |
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | El Paso Locomotive | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Lexington Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Sporting JAX | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Colorado Springs | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 27, 26 | Away | New Mexico United | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Las Vegas Lights | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 1 - 0 | Win |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lexington | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 31 |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 42 | -17 | 18 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.03% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Lexington to win
This prediction indicates that Lexington has a 43.84% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.82 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.45% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.44% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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