Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC Sunday 26th July 2026 05:00 AM football predictions.

Monterey Bay Orange County SC

Monterey Bay D W L W W W

Orange County SC D D W W D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Monterey Bay	Orange County SC	2 - 1	July 12, 2025
Orange County SC	Monterey Bay	0 - 3	March 23, 2025
Monterey Bay	Orange County SC	0 - 0	September 22, 2024
Orange County SC	Monterey Bay	2 - 0	April 28, 2024
Monterey Bay	Orange County SC	0 - 1	October 15, 2023
Orange County SC	Monterey Bay	3 - 1	July 2, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Away	San Antonio	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 21, 26	Home	El Paso Locomotive	1 - 0	Win
Jun 18, 26	Away	FC Tulsa	2 - 0	Loss
Jun 11, 26	Home	Sporting JAX	2 - 1	Win
May 31, 26	Home	Loudoun United	4 - 1	Win
May 24, 26	Home	Birmingham Legion	2 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 8, 26	Away	Hartford Athletic	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 4, 26	Away	Rhode Island	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 24, 26	Away	Miami FC	2 - 4	Win
Jun 21, 26	Away	Las Vegas Lights	2 - 3	Win
Jun 14, 26	Away	New Mexico United	1 - 1	Draw
May 24, 26	Home	Oakland Roots	3 - 2	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Orange County SC	16	7	7	2	25	18	+7	28
21	Monterey Bay	15	4	3	8	14	22	-8	15

This prediction indicates that Orange County SC has a 50.31% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.50 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.73% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.07% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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