Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés Sunday 27th September 2026 07:15 PM football predictions.

Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Sept. 27, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Mérida AD UD Logroñés

Mérida AD L L W W L L

UD Logroñés W W W W L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 12, 26	Home	Mirandes	3 - 4	Loss
Sep 6, 26	Away	Cultural Leonesa	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Home	Deportivo La Coruña II	1 - 0	Win
Aug 14, 26	Home	Alcorcon	2 - 1	Win
Aug 7, 26	Away	Leganes	3 - 0	Loss
Jul 28, 26	Home	Al-Nassr	0 - 2	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 12, 26	Away	UD Ourense	0 - 3	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Zamora	1 - 2	Win
Aug 31, 26	Home	Extremadura 1924	2 - 1	Win
Aug 22, 26	Home	Huesca II	4 - 0	Win
Aug 21, 26	Away	Mirandes	4 - 0	Loss
Aug 14, 26	Home	Zaragoza	1 - 2	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	UD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	4	2	+2	6
12	Mérida AD	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3

This prediction indicates that Mérida AD has a 38.36% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.57 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.53% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.34% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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