Prva Liga
Match Analysis
Napredak
Grafičar
Napredak
W
L
L
W
L
D
Grafičar
L
W
L
L
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The two sides are closely matched in overall quality, and both teams are showing moderate recent form with similar rest ahead of the match. The model predicts a home win with a 58% probability, which is notably higher than what the market odds imply. Additionally, Napredak's recent defensive struggles align with the model's lower confidence in both teams scoring and in more than one or two goals being scored in the game.
Napredak Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Dubočica | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Otrant-Olympic | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 15, 26 | Away | Sloga Doboj | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Radnik Bijeljina | 0 - 1 | Win |
| May 24, 26 | Away | Mladost Lucani | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| May 16, 26 | Home | Radnicki 1923 | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Grafičar Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Borac Cacak | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | OFK Vršac | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 15, 26 | Home | Metalac GM | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| May 29, 26 | Away | FAP | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| May 24, 26 | Home | FK Trayal | 3 - 0 | Win |
| May 17, 26 | Away | Kabel Novi Sad | 0 - 2 | Win |
Prva Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grafičar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Napredak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.04% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Napredak to win
This prediction indicates that Napredak has a 58.01% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 22.72 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.24% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.08% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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