USL Championship
Match Analysis
New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
D
W
L
W
D
W
Sacramento Republic
D
D
D
W
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | 0 - 1 | June 21, 2026 |
| New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | 0 - 2 | August 31, 2025 |
| Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | 2 - 1 | March 9, 2025 |
| Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | 4 - 0 | September 30, 2024 |
| New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | 3 - 1 | September 19, 2024 |
| Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | 1 - 0 | October 22, 2023 |
New Mexico United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Indy Eleven | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Las Vegas Lights | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | San Antonio | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Lexington | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Loudoun United | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | FC Tulsa | 1 - 0 | Win |
Sacramento Republic Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Orange County SC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Monterey Bay | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Lexington | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | FC Tulsa | 1 - 0 | Loss |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New Mexico United | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 40 |
| 11 | Sacramento Republic | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 33 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.38% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.New Mexico United to win
This prediction indicates that New Mexico United has a 43.26% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.45 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.18% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.98% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Comments