HNL
Match Analysis
NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Varazdin
L
W
W
W
W
W
HNK Hajduk Split
L
W
L
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts an away win for HNK Hajduk Split with a 46% probability. Despite NK Varazdin's strong recent form, the model sees a clear quality gap favoring HNK Hajduk Split. The market odds also suggest an away win is likely, as they imply a higher chance of HNK Hajduk Split winning compared to the model's view. The model also predicts that both teams will score and that there will be over 1.5 goals, aligning with the market's inclination towards a higher-scoring game.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | 3 - 1 | May 3, 2026 |
| NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 - 1 | February 28, 2026 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | 1 - 1 | November 29, 2025 |
| NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 - 0 | September 13, 2025 |
| NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 - 1 | April 18, 2025 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | 1 - 0 | February 8, 2025 |
NK Varazdin Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 26 | Away | Hradec Králové | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 23, 26 | Home | Hradec Králové | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | Kustosija | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | Beltinci | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Bihor Oradea | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Radomlje | 0 - 1 | Win |
HNK Hajduk Split Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 26 | Away | Pafos | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 23, 26 | Home | Pafos | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Away | Žilina | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 9, 26 | Home | Žilina | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 1, 26 | Away | Celje | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jun 27, 26 | Away | LNZ Cherkasy | 0 - 1 | Win |
HNL Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions
HNK Hajduk Split to win
This prediction indicates that HNK Hajduk Split has a 45.62% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.37 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.72% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.59% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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