Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils Sunday 19th July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Ogre United BFC Daugavpils

Ogre United L W L W L L

BFC Daugavpils W L D W D D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
BFC Daugavpils	Ogre United	3 - 1	May 21, 2026
BFC Daugavpils	Ogre United	2 - 1	April 7, 2026

Ogre United Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 30, 26	Away	FK Liepaja	4 - 0	Loss
Jun 26, 26	Home	Tukums	3 - 2	Win
Jun 22, 26	Away	Rīgas FS	6 - 0	Loss
Jun 17, 26	Away	FS Jelgava	0 - 2	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	Riga	1 - 4	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Auda	2 - 0	Loss

BFC Daugavpils Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	FK Liepaja	3 - 1	Win
Jun 30, 26	Away	Rīgas FS	3 - 1	Loss
Jun 25, 26	Home	Riga	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 20, 26	Home	Grobiņa	1 - 0	Win
Jun 16, 26	Home	Super Nova	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 12, 26	Away	Tukums	1 - 1	Draw

Virsliga Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	BFC Daugavpils	21	6	6	9	22	28	-6	24
10	Ogre United	21	2	4	15	19	54	-35	10

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.31% likelihood that both Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

BFC Daugavpils to win

This prediction indicates that BFC Daugavpils has a 55.6% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.42 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.55% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Virsliga

Grobiņa vs Tukums 6 hours from now · 4 p.m. ›