Taça de Portugal logo

Taça de Portugal
Oliveirense logo Oliveirense
Aug. 30, 2026 2 weeks from now VS
Penalva Castelo logo Penalva Castelo

Match Analysis

Oliveirense Penalva Castelo
Oliveirense D D L W D L
Penalva Castelo L L D
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Oliveirense Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 14, 26 Away União Santarém 1 - 1 Draw
Aug 8, 26 Home Louletano 0 - 0 Draw
May 17, 26 Home Felgueiras 1932 1 - 5 Loss
May 9, 26 Away Feirense 1 - 2 Win
May 2, 26 Home Lusitânia Lourosa 0 - 0 Draw
Apr 27, 26 Away Chaves 2 - 1 Loss

Penalva Castelo Form (Last 3 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Sep 9, 18 Away Anadia 3 - 1 Loss
Sep 25, 16 Home Amarante 0 - 4 Loss
Sep 4, 16 Home Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol 2 - 2 Draw

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.25% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Oliveirense to win
This prediction indicates that Oliveirense has a 50.42% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.60 %

Most Likely Scorelines

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