Paide vs Vaprus Saturday 04th July 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Paide Vaprus

Paide D W W D D L

Vaprus W L D W W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Vaprus	Paide	3 - 2	March 7, 2026
Paide	Vaprus	3 - 0	November 2, 2025
Vaprus	Paide	1 - 0	August 30, 2025
Vaprus	Paide	1 - 2	June 18, 2025
Paide	Vaprus	1 - 0	April 9, 2025
Vaprus	Paide	0 - 1	October 23, 2024

Paide Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 28, 26	Away	Kalju Nomme	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 21, 26	Away	Flora Tallinn	1 - 2	Win
Jun 17, 26	Home	Laagri	1 - 0	Win
Jun 14, 26	Away	Kalju Nomme	1 - 1	Draw
May 31, 26	Home	Kuressaare	1 - 1	Draw
May 20, 26	Away	Trans Narva	1 - 0	Loss

Vaprus Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 26, 26	Home	Kuressaare	1 - 0	Win
Jun 16, 26	Home	Flora Tallinn	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 13, 26	Away	Tammeka	0 - 0	Draw
May 30, 26	Home	Kalju Nomme	3 - 1	Win
May 24, 26	Away	FC Levadia Tallinn	1 - 6	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Laagri	1 - 2	Win

Meistriliiga Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
4	Vaprus	17	9	2	6	27	25	+2	29
5	Paide	17	8	4	5	26	21	+5	28

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.41% likelihood that both Paide and Vaprus will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Paide to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Paide has a 40.64% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.35 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.83% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.6% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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