Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay Thursday 23rd July 2026 08:00 PM football predictions.

Panevėžys FK Tobol Kostanay

Panevėžys W W W W W D

FK Tobol Kostanay L W L W D L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Feb 11, 26	Home	TransINVEST Vilnius	4 - 1	Win
Feb 7, 26	Home	Metta / LU	2 - 1	Win
Jan 31, 26	Home	Tukums	2 - 1	Win
Jan 24, 26	Home	FS Jelgava	2 - 0	Win
Jan 17, 26	Home	BFC Daugavpils	1 - 0	Win
Jan 10, 26	Home	Džiugas Telšiai	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Away	Altay	1 - 0	Loss
Jun 28, 26	Home	Altay	3 - 1	Win
Jun 21, 26	Away	Okzhetpes	2 - 1	Loss
Jun 13, 26	Home	Kyzyl-Zhar	2 - 0	Win
May 28, 26	Away	Atyrau	1 - 1	Draw
May 23, 26	Home	Ordabasy	0 - 3	Loss

This prediction indicates that Panevėžys has a 45.85% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.44 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.59% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.33% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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