Liga MX
Match Analysis
Puebla
Toluca
Puebla
W
D
L
W
W
L
Toluca
D
W
L
W
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | Toluca | 0 - 0 | January 31, 2026 |
| Toluca | Puebla | 3 - 1 | September 14, 2025 |
| Puebla | Toluca | 0 - 3 | March 15, 2025 |
| Toluca | Puebla | 5 - 0 | October 23, 2024 |
| Puebla | Toluca | 1 - 1 | January 27, 2024 |
| Toluca | Puebla | 0 - 1 | November 1, 2023 |
Puebla Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 26 | Away | Pachuca | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Guadalajara Chivas | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 22, 26 | Away | Cruz Azul | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | FC Juarez | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Atlas | 3 - 4 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Pachuca | 3 - 1 | Loss |
Toluca Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Atlante FC | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 3, 26 | Home | Necaxa | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 22, 26 | Home | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Guadalajara Chivas | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Atlante FC | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Cancún | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Liga MX Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 12 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.31% likelihood that both Puebla and Toluca will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Toluca to win
This prediction indicates that Toluca has a 60.96% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.89 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.28% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.98% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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