Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Sunday 16th August 2026 03:00 AM football predictions.

Sao Paulo Coritiba

Sao Paulo D L L W D D

Coritiba L D L L W W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Coritiba	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	February 25, 2026
Sao Paulo	Coritiba	2 - 1	September 27, 2023
Coritiba	Sao Paulo	1 - 1	April 29, 2023
Sao Paulo	Coritiba	3 - 1	October 20, 2022
Coritiba	Sao Paulo	1 - 1	June 9, 2022
Sao Paulo	Coritiba	1 - 1	January 23, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 26, 26	Away	Flamengo	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 23, 26	Home	Atletico Paranaense	1 - 2	Loss
May 31, 26	Away	remo	1 - 0	Loss
May 26, 26	Home	Boston River	2 - 0	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Botafogo	1 - 1	Draw
May 20, 26	Home	Millonarios	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 31, 26	Home	Cruzeiro	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 26, 26	Away	RB Bragantino	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 22, 26	Home	Palmeiras	1 - 3	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Flamengo	3 - 0	Loss
May 25, 26	Home	Bahia	3 - 2	Win
May 17, 26	Away	Santos	0 - 3	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Coritiba	20	7	6	7	25	27	-2	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	+2	26

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.96% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Sao Paulo has a 51.29% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.35 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.57% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.99% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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