Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk Saturday 26th September 2026 06:00 PM football predictions.

First League

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Sept. 26, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Ska-khabarovsk

Match Analysis

Shinnik Yaroslavl Ska-khabarovsk

Shinnik Yaroslavl W D D W W D

Ska-khabarovsk W W L L W L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Shinnik Yaroslavl have moderate recent form, while Ska-khabarovsk have been struggling. Despite recent meetings being fairly even, there is a clear quality gap favoring Shinnik Yaroslavl. The model predicts a home win with a 57% probability, which aligns with the significant quality advantage and the difference in recent form. Additionally, the model sees Ska-khabarovsk's recent creation of more shooting chances as not enough to overcome their overall weaker form and the home side's quality edge.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Shinnik Yaroslavl	Ska-khabarovsk	3 - 0	April 26, 2026
Ska-khabarovsk	Shinnik Yaroslavl	3 - 1	October 5, 2025
Shinnik Yaroslavl	Ska-khabarovsk	0 - 1	March 9, 2025
Ska-khabarovsk	Shinnik Yaroslavl	0 - 0	August 10, 2024
Shinnik Yaroslavl	Ska-khabarovsk	2 - 1	May 12, 2024
Shinnik Yaroslavl	Ska-khabarovsk	0 - 0	February 18, 2024

Shinnik Yaroslavl Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 10, 26	Home	Torpedo Moskva	2 - 0	Win
Sep 5, 26	Home	Rotor Volgograd	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 30, 26	Away	Enisey	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 22, 26	Away	Volga Ulyanovsk	1 - 3	Win
Aug 14, 26	Away	FK Neftekhimik	0 - 2	Win
Aug 8, 26	Home	Arsenal Tula	2 - 2	Draw

Ska-khabarovsk Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 9, 26	Away	Znamya Noginsk	0 - 4	Win
Sep 5, 26	Home	Leningradets	3 - 2	Win
Aug 30, 26	Home	Torpedo Moskva	0 - 2	Loss
Aug 24, 26	Away	Nizhny Novgorod	4 - 2	Loss
Aug 15, 26	Home	Veles	2 - 0	Win
Aug 9, 26	Home	Spartak Kostroma	1 - 3	Loss

First League Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	9	3	5	1	14	11	+3	14
18	Ska-khabarovsk	8	1	0	7	6	17	-11	3

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 53.46% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Shinnik Yaroslavl to win

This prediction indicates that Shinnik Yaroslavl has a 53.87% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.96 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.32% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.02% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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