Victoria NPL
Match Analysis
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
W
W
D
W
W
L
Heidelberg United
L
D
D
D
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heidelberg United | South Melbourne | 4 - 0 | May 8, 2026 |
| Heidelberg United | South Melbourne | 1 - 1 | July 26, 2025 |
| South Melbourne | Heidelberg United | 0 - 3 | April 13, 2025 |
| Heidelberg United | South Melbourne | 1 - 0 | June 16, 2024 |
| South Melbourne | Heidelberg United | 1 - 1 | March 8, 2024 |
| Heidelberg United | South Melbourne | 2 - 1 | August 16, 2023 |
South Melbourne Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | St. Albans Saints | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 24, 26 | Away | Oakleigh Cannons | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Preston Lions | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Dandenong City | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 5, 26 | Home | Dandenong Thunder | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jun 28, 26 | Home | Green Gully | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Heidelberg United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Avondale | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 24, 26 | Home | Sunshine Georgies | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Altona Magic | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Melbourne City II | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 3, 26 | Home | St. Albans Saints | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 26, 26 | Home | Oakleigh Cannons | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Victoria NPL Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | South Melbourne | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 35 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 34 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.88% likelihood that both South Melbourne and Heidelberg United will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.South Melbourne or Heidelberg United to win
This prediction indicates that Heidelberg United has a 39.38% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.16 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.31% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.58% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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