Spartak Kostroma vs Ural Saturday 26th September 2026 02:30 PM football predictions.

First League

Spartak Kostroma

Sept. 26, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Ural

Match Analysis

Spartak Kostroma Ural

Spartak Kostroma W W W L D W

Ural L W D W D W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The match features a modest quality edge in favor of Ural, supported by their stronger recent form and a rest advantage going into the game. Despite this, Spartak Kostroma's moderate recent form means they are still competitive. The model predicts a home win with a 38% probability, which is notable given the quality gap but reflects some uncertainty due to limited head-to-head history and even recent shot volumes between the sides. The model also sees a less than even chance that both teams will score, and that the game will have fewer than two goals total.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Ural	Spartak Kostroma	1 - 1	November 22, 2025
Spartak Kostroma	Ural	1 - 1	September 4, 2025

Spartak Kostroma Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 8, 26	Away	Ryazan	0 - 2	Win
Sep 5, 26	Away	Chelyabinsk	0 - 1	Win
Aug 31, 26	Home	Rotor Volgograd	1 - 0	Win
Aug 21, 26	Away	Torpedo Moskva	3 - 0	Loss
Aug 17, 26	Home	FC UFA	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 9, 26	Away	Ska-khabarovsk	1 - 3	Win

Ural Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 10, 26	Away	Luki-Energiya	2 - 1	Loss
Sep 6, 26	Home	KAMAZ	2 - 0	Win
Aug 29, 26	Away	Arsenal Tula	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 22, 26	Home	Tekstilshchik	2 - 0	Win
Aug 14, 26	Away	Rotor Volgograd	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 8, 26	Home	FC UFA	3 - 0	Win

First League Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	Spartak Kostroma	9	5	3	1	13	8	+5	18
7	Ural	8	4	3	1	14	4	+10	15

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 54.4% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Spartak Kostroma to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Spartak Kostroma has a 37.2% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.63 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.7% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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