Liga MX
Match Analysis
Toluca
Necaxa
Toluca
W
D
L
L
L
W
Necaxa
W
D
W
W
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | Toluca | 0 - 3 | February 22, 2026 |
| Toluca | Necaxa | 3 - 1 | July 13, 2025 |
| Toluca | Necaxa | 5 - 2 | March 8, 2025 |
| Necaxa | Toluca | 1 - 3 | October 28, 2024 |
| Necaxa | Toluca | 3 - 3 | February 10, 2024 |
| Toluca | Necaxa | 0 - 0 | July 2, 2023 |
Toluca Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Guadalajara Chivas | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Atlante FC | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Cancún | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| May 10, 26 | Away | Pachuca | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| May 4, 26 | Home | Pachuca | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Apr 26, 26 | Home | Leon | 4 - 1 | Win |
Necaxa Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | Atlante FC | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Atlas | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 1, 26 | Away | Correcaminos Uat | 3 - 6 | Win |
| Jun 20, 26 | Home | Monarcas | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Apr 27, 26 | Away | Cruz Azul | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Apr 23, 26 | Home | Guadalajara Chivas | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Liga MX Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.13% likelihood that both Toluca and Necaxa will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Toluca to win
This prediction indicates that Toluca has a 63.63% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 19.87 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.59% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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