Major League Soccer
Match Analysis
Toronto FC
Charlotte
Toronto FC
D
L
D
D
L
L
Charlotte
L
W
D
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | Toronto FC | 3 - 1 | May 16, 2026 |
| Charlotte | Toronto FC | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2025 |
| Toronto FC | Charlotte | 0 - 2 | May 31, 2025 |
| Charlotte | Toronto FC | 3 - 2 | April 13, 2024 |
| Toronto FC | Charlotte | 1 - 0 | March 9, 2024 |
| Charlotte | Toronto FC | 3 - 0 | October 4, 2023 |
Toronto FC Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 26 | Away | New York City FC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | DC United | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 22, 26 | Away | New England Revolution | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 16, 26 | Away | CF Montreal | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| May 24, 26 | Away | Chicago Fire | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| May 16, 26 | Away | Charlotte | 3 - 1 | Loss |
Charlotte Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Chicago Fire | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | New York Red Bulls | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 23, 26 | Home | Atlanta United FC | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| May 23, 26 | Home | New England Revolution | 1 - 0 | Win |
| May 16, 26 | Home | Toronto FC | 3 - 1 | Win |
| May 13, 26 | Home | New York City FC | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Major League Soccer Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Charlotte | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 25 | +3 | 25 |
| 25 | Toronto FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 17 |
Predictions
Toronto FC or Charlotte to win
This prediction indicates that Toronto FC has a 40.21% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.61 %Most Likely Scorelines
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