Tukums vs FS Jelgava Saturday 29th August 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Virsliga

Tukums

Aug. 29, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

FS Jelgava

Match Analysis

Tukums FS Jelgava

Tukums L L L L L L

FS Jelgava L L W L L W

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
FS Jelgava	Tukums	4 - 1	June 21, 2026
Tukums	FS Jelgava	5 - 0	May 1, 2026
FS Jelgava	Tukums	2 - 1	March 8, 2026
Tukums	FS Jelgava	1 - 1	November 9, 2025
FS Jelgava	Tukums	1 - 1	August 23, 2025
Tukums	FS Jelgava	1 - 1	June 17, 2025

Tukums Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 8, 26	Away	BFC Daugavpils	2 - 0	Loss
Aug 2, 26	Away	FK Liepaja	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 27, 26	Home	Rīgas FS	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Away	Riga	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 5, 26	Away	Grobiņa	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 1, 26	Home	Super Nova	1 - 2	Loss

FS Jelgava Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 9, 26	Home	Auda	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 1, 26	Away	BFC Daugavpils	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 26, 26	Away	FK Liepaja	0 - 2	Win
Jul 20, 26	Home	Rīgas FS	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 3, 26	Away	Riga	3 - 0	Loss
Jun 29, 26	Home	Grobiņa	2 - 0	Win

Virsliga Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	FS Jelgava	26	7	7	12	27	42	-15	28
9	Tukums	26	3	8	15	39	52	-13	17

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.52% likelihood that both Tukums and FS Jelgava will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

FS Jelgava to win

This prediction indicates that FS Jelgava has a 41.55% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.47 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.05% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.35% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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