Virsliga
Match Analysis
Tukums
Super Nova
Tukums
L
L
W
D
L
L
Super Nova
L
L
D
L
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | Tukums | 1 - 1 | May 11, 2026 |
| Tukums | Super Nova | 1 - 2 | March 22, 2026 |
| Tukums | Super Nova | 2 - 1 | September 28, 2025 |
| Super Nova | Tukums | 1 - 0 | July 6, 2025 |
| Super Nova | Tukums | 1 - 1 | May 16, 2025 |
| Tukums | Super Nova | 2 - 2 | March 31, 2025 |
Tukums Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 26 | Away | Ogre United | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jun 21, 26 | Away | FS Jelgava | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 17, 26 | Home | Auda | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jun 12, 26 | Home | BFC Daugavpils | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 30, 26 | Away | FK Liepaja | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| May 25, 26 | Away | Rīgas FS | 3 - 1 | Loss |
Super Nova Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 26 | Home | FS Jelgava | 1 - 5 | Loss |
| Jun 21, 26 | Home | Auda | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Jun 16, 26 | Away | BFC Daugavpils | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 12, 26 | Away | FK Liepaja | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| May 29, 26 | Home | Rīgas FS | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| May 24, 26 | Away | Riga | 3 - 0 | Loss |
Virsliga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Super Nova | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 21 |
| 9 | Tukums | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 17 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.04% likelihood that both Tukums and Super Nova will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Tukums to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Tukums has a 34.19% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.98 %Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.35% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.77% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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