Taça de Portugal logo

Taça de Portugal
UD da Serra logo UD da Serra
Aug. 30, 2026 2 weeks from now VS
Uniao de Pombal logo Uniao de Pombal

Match Analysis

UD da Serra Uniao de Pombal
UD da Serra L L L W
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

UD da Serra Form (Last 4 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Sep 21, 25 Away CD Olivais e Moscavide 2 - 0 Loss
Sep 8, 24 Away Caldas 1 - 0 Loss
Oct 2, 22 Home Oliveirense 0 - 4 Loss
Sep 11, 22 Home Pedrógão São Pedro 5 - 1 Win

Predictions

UD da Serra to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that UD da Serra has a 38.67% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.80 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.68% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.56% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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