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Taça de Portugal

Sept. 20, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Match Analysis

Alcains Vitoria Setubal
Alcains W L W L D L
Vitoria Setubal L L W D W W
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Alcains Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 30, 26 Home Sertanense 1 - 0 Win
Oct 20, 24 Away Leixoes 2 - 1 Loss
Sep 22, 24 Home CF Benfica 4 - 1 Win
Sep 11, 22 Home Sertanense 0 - 1 Loss
Sep 27, 20 Home Vitória de Sernache 2 - 2 Draw
Sep 9, 18 Away Vitória de Sernache 1 - 0 Loss

Vitoria Setubal Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 10, 24 Home Amarante 0 - 3 Loss
Jun 1, 24 Away Lusitânia 2 - 1 Loss
May 25, 24 Home Moncarapachense 1 - 0 Win
May 19, 24 Away União Santarém 0 - 0 Draw
May 5, 24 Home Lusitânia 3 - 1 Win
Apr 28, 24 Away Moncarapachense 1 - 2 Win

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 56.76% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Alcains to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Alcains has a 40.65% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.33 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.39% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 61.15% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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