Alpendorada vs Casa Pia Sunday 18th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

View league ›

Alpendorada View team ›

Oct. 18, 2026 9 hours ago VS

Casa Pia View team ›

Match Analysis

Alpendorada Casa Pia

Alpendorada W D L W W D

Casa Pia L W L D L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Casa Pia is considered the stronger side on paper, but the model sees Alpendorada's strong recent form and rest advantage as key factors. Despite Casa Pia's higher overall quality, Alpendorada's recent attacking momentum and Casa Pia's defensive issues make an away win possible. The model predicts an away win with a 37% probability, which is notably less confident than what typical market odds might suggest for a favorite of Casa Pia's standing. Additionally, the model expects both teams to score and for the match to feature more than 1.5 and 2.5 goals, indicating a likely high-scoring encounter.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Alpendorada	Casa Pia	0 - 3	Taça de Portugal	November 22, 2025

Alpendorada Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Home	Mação	Taça de Portugal	3 - 0	Win
Aug 30, 26	Away	Rebordosa	Taça de Portugal	1 - 1	Draw
Nov 22, 25	Home	Casa Pia	Taça de Portugal	0 - 3	Loss
Oct 18, 25	Home	Estrela	Taça de Portugal	3 - 1	Win
Sep 21, 25	Home	Estrela	Taça de Portugal	7 - 1	Win
Oct 20, 24	Home	Cinfães	Taça de Portugal	1 - 1	Draw

Casa Pia Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Home	Santa Clara	Primeira Liga	0 - 1	Loss
Sep 20, 26	Away	Estoril	Primeira Liga	1 - 2	Win
Sep 12, 26	Home	FC Porto	Primeira Liga	1 - 4	Loss
Sep 6, 26	Away	Guimaraes	Primeira Liga	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 30, 26	Home	Moreirense	Primeira Liga	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 24, 26	Away	GIL Vicente	Primeira Liga	2 - 0	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.43% likelihood that both Alpendorada and Casa Pia will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Alpendorada or Casa Pia to win

This prediction indicates that Casa Pia has a 36.93% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.43 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 64.22% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.21% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions View plans

Comments

[[ comment.user.username ]]

This comment has been removed