Alverca vs CF Os Belenenses Friday 17th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Alverca CF Os Belenenses

Alverca L D L W L W

CF Os Belenenses D L W W D D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Alverca	CF Os Belenenses	2 - 0	July 23, 2025
CF Os Belenenses	Alverca	1 - 2	March 11, 2023
Alverca	CF Os Belenenses	1 - 0	December 4, 2022

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 16, 26	Away	Famalicao	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Estoril	1 - 1	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	FC Porto	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 24, 26	Home	Arouca	2 - 1	Win
Apr 18, 26	Away	Nacional	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 12, 26	Home	Casa Pia	3 - 1	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 30, 26	Home	Farense	0 - 0	Draw
May 23, 26	Away	Farense	1 - 0	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	Mafra	3 - 1	Win
May 10, 26	Away	Varzim	1 - 2	Win
May 2, 26	Home	União Santarém	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 26, 26	Away	Amarante	2 - 2	Draw

This prediction indicates that Alverca has a 51.58% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.96 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.44% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.94% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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